Creating n Equations in n Variables for Probability Problems
Lesson · Intermediate
Probability
A fair coin is flipped repeatedly until either or occurs.
What is the probability that occurs before ?
Let
Then
Solving
and therefore
A token starts at 2 on the number line
At every step it moves one unit right with probability and one unit left with probability . The process continues until it reaches 0 or 3.
What is the probability that it reaches 3 first?
Let
Then
and
Substituting
Thus
so
A game can be in state or state .
From :
• with probability , you win;
• with probability , you move to .
From :
• with probability , you lose;
• with probability , you return to .
Starting from , find the probability of eventually winning.
Then
Hence
Therefore