Probability
Lesson · Beginner
Probability
Probability measures how likely an event is to occur.
A probability is always between 0 and 1:
where denotes the probability that event occurs.
A probability of
means the event is impossible, while a probability of
means the event is certain.
Sample Space and Events
The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
It is usually denoted by
An event is a collection of outcomes from the sample space.
For example, when rolling a standard die,
If is the event that an even number is rolled, then
Equally Likely Outcomes
If all outcomes are equally likely, then
or equivalently,
For the die example,
Complement
The complement of , denoted by , is the event that does not occur.
Since either occurs or it does not,
Equivalently,
Events and are independent if
A fair six-sided die is rolled. Define
and
Determine whether and are independent.
We have
Also,
so
Since
A fair six-sided die is rolled. Let
and
where .
Find so that and are independent.
We have
and
For independence, we need
Thus must contain exactly 2 outcomes.
Since , we need to be another even number.
Therefore,
An integer is chosen uniformly at random from
Let
and
Find all positive integers for which and are independent.
We have
An integer belongs to both and exactly when it is divisible by 6. Thus
For independence,
so
Hence
Write
If , then
so every with works.
If , then
gives , which gives . Since , this case gives no solution.
If , then
which is true for every . Thus every works.
If , then
would imply
which is impossible for .
If , then
would imply
which is impossible for .
If , then
would imply
which is impossible for .
Therefore, all solutions are
Equivalently,
The event that or occurs is
In general,
We subtract because outcomes belonging to both events were counted twice.
If and cannot occur simultaneously, then
so
The event that both and occur is
If and are independent, then
Two events are independent when the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other.
For example, when tossing a fair coin twice,
When an object is selected with replacement, it is returned before the next selection, so the probabilities usually remain unchanged.
When selecting without replacement, the available objects change after each selection.
For example, a bag contains 3 red and 2 blue balls.
The probability of drawing two red balls without replacement is
A fair die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a number greater than 4?
The sample space is
The favorable outcomes are
Therefore,
Two fair dice are rolled. What is the probability that their sum is 8?
There are
equally likely ordered outcomes.
The favorable outcomes are
Thus,
A fair die is rolled 4 times. What is the probability that at least one 6 is rolled?
It is easier to count the complement.
The probability of not rolling a 6 on one roll is
Therefore, the probability of no 6 in four rolls is
Hence,
Three distinct numbers are selected uniformly at random from
What is the probability that the largest selected number is 8?
The total number of selections is
If 8 is the largest selected number, then 8 must be selected and the other two numbers must come from
Therefore, the number of favorable selections is
Hence,
A 5-element subset is chosen uniformly at random from
What is the probability that it contains exactly 3 odd numbers?
There are 6 odd and 6 even numbers.
The total number of 5-element subsets is
For exactly 3 odd numbers, choose
odd numbers and
even numbers.
Therefore,
The formula
works only when the outcomes in are equally likely.
In general, do not assume
The correct general formula is
If and can occur together, subtract
In general, do not assume
This formula applies when and are independent.