Probability

Lesson · Beginner

Probability

Probability measures how likely an event is to occur.

A probability is always between 0 and 1:

0≤P(A)≤10\le P(A)\le1

where P(A)P(A) denotes the probability that event AA occurs.

A probability of

00

means the event is impossible, while a probability of

11

means the event is certain.


Sample Space and Events

The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

It is usually denoted by

S.S.

An event is a collection of outcomes from the sample space.

For example, when rolling a standard die,

S={1,2,3,4,5,6}.S=\{1,2,3,4,5,6\}.

If AA is the event that an even number is rolled, then

A={2,4,6}.A=\{2,4,6\}.

Equally Likely Outcomes

If all outcomes are equally likely, then

P(A)=number of favorable outcomestotal number of outcomesP(A)=\frac{\text{number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{total number of outcomes}}

or equivalently,

P(A)=∣A∣∣S∣P(A)=\frac{|A|}{|S|}

For the die example,

P(A)=36=12.P(A)=\frac{3}{6}=\frac12.

Complement

The complement of AA, denoted by AcA^c, is the event that AA does not occur.

Since either AA occurs or it does not,

P(Ac)=1−P(A)P(A^c)=1-P(A)

Equivalently,

P(A)+P(Ac)=1P(A)+P(A^c)=1